Análise multicritério para viabilização de uma matriz energética de baixo carbono no Brasil: estudo de caso sobre o hidrogênio verde

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes ways to make a low-carbon energy matrix viable in Brazil, taking green hydrogen as a case study. Although the Brazilian electricity matrix is mostly renewable, the energy sector accounts for more than 25% of net national GHG emissions, requiring decarbonization actions in line with the goals of the NDCs. Starting from the recognition of the transition as a complex socio-technical process - involving technological, institutional and cultural transformations - the study combines technical-economic analysis with a critical perspective on challenges and alternatives, focusing on sectors that are difficult to electrify. The methodology integrated multi-criteria spatial analysis (QGIS) and technical-economic modeling (HOMER Pro) to evaluate regional synergies and CO2 mitigation. Three states (MG, RS, PI) were analyzed, revealing a demand for 5.69 Mt/year of green H2 for regional energy transition, with a mitigation capacity of 42.7 MtCO2/year (10% of emissions from the Brazilian energy sector). The results indicate a high LCOH (US$ 5.45-14.20/kg vs. global average of US$ 2-6.3/kg) and a mitigation cost of US$ 367.74/tCO2, reflecting significant economic challenges for the insertion of green hydrogen in the Brazilian context. In summary, green H2 has strategic potential for decarbonization in specific sectors, but its scalability in Brazil is conditional on cost reductions via gains in scale, technological innovation and dedicated regulatory frameworks. The transition to a low-carbon matrix requires a pluralistic approach, considering synergies and competition with biofuels/ biomass, aligned with the goals of the Brazilian NDCs, as well as the integration of social and distributive impacts to ensure a just transition. The conclusion is that, although incipient and economically challenging, green hydrogen can contribute as a complementary vector in Brazilian decarbonization, particularly in niches with limited alternatives, as long as it is part of a comprehensive energy strategy that prioritizes the specificities of the national context.