The talent versus luck model as an ensemble of one-dimensional random walks

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dc.creatorRicardo Simão Pereira Lopes
dc.creatorFrancisco Rosendo Martins de Andrade
dc.creatorLucas Lages Wardil
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-24T19:21:35Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-09T01:30:31Z
dc.date.available2025-02-24T19:21:35Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
dc.description.sponsorshipCAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525921500107
dc.identifier.issn1793-6802
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/80381
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofAdvances in Complex Systems
dc.rightsAcesso Restrito
dc.subjectSucesso
dc.subjectSorte
dc.subjectPasseio aleatório
dc.subject.otherSuccess
dc.subject.otherTalent
dc.subject.otherLuck
dc.subject.otherRandom walk
dc.titleThe talent versus luck model as an ensemble of one-dimensional random walks
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
local.citation.epage2150010-14
local.citation.issue5
local.citation.spage2150010-1
local.citation.volume24
local.description.resumoThe role of luck on individual success is hard to be investigated empirically. Simplified mathematical models are often used to shed light on the subtle relations between success and luck. Recently, a simple model called “Talent versus Luck” showed that the most successful individual in a population can be just an average talented individual that is subjected to a very fortunate sequence of events. Here, we modify the framework of the TvL model such that in our model the individuals’ success is modelled as an ensemble of one-dimensional random walks. Our model reproduces the original TvL results and, due to the mathematical simplicity, it shows clearly that the original conclusions of the TvL model are the consequence of two factors: first, the normal distribution of talents with low standard deviation, which creates a large number of average talented individuals; second, the low number of steps considered, which allows the observation of large fluctuations. We also show that the results strongly depend on the relative frequency of good and bad luck events, which defines a critical value for the talent: in the long run, the individuals with high talent end up very successful and those with low talent end up ruined. Last, we considered two variations to illustrate applications of the ensemble of random walks model.
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5588-8279
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2964-948X
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentICX - DEPARTAMENTO DE FÍSICA
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219525921500107

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