Simulação dos impactos econômicos da proposta brasileira na COPI21: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

This article aims to simulate the likely economic impacts of imposing carbon emission reduction targets derived from the Brazilian proposal in COP21. Brazil has pledged to reduce 37% of its greenhouse gases emissions (GHG) compared to 2005 levels, by 2025. The methodology adopted for this purpose consists of applying a computable general equilibrium model with recursive-dynamic structure, the Begreen, developed by Magalhães (2013). The emissions related to fuel and production processes have been included in the model, given their increasing roles in Brazilian total emissions. The energetic and environmental specification modules incorporated into this model make it suitable to the analysis of GHG reduction policies, once they allow treating the emissions in detail and separating them by emitting agent (fuel, industries and households) and emitting activity. Generally, the results indicate a cumulative decrease of 3,3% in real GDP in 2025, compared to the baseline scenario, associated with a reduction in household consumption and investment. As expected, the sectors with the greatest dependence on the burning of fuels, or with intensive emissions in their production processes, were the most negatively affected in terms of variation of economic activity.