Avaliação dos riscos operacionais de subestações de energia elétrica e sua redução aplicando métodos de tomada de decisão multicritério

Abstract

The present work is dedicated to developing a methodology aimed at improving the quality of operational risk estimation for power substations applying models and methods of multicriteria decision making. The application of the proposed methodology allows one to assess, compare, prioritize, and/or order power substations from the point of view of operational risk and to rationally allocate available resources to reduce operational risk. In particular, it is presented a method of Systemic Risk Reduction Assessment (SRRA) that integrates concepts of risk assessment and multicriteria decision making techniques. The use of SRRA makes it possible to take into account expert opinions to obtain the operational risk estimates. These estimates serve for allocating resources between substations within the framework of a multicriteria models. Their analysis is based on applying the modification of the Bellman-Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment, providing harmonious multicriteria solutions. The main contribution of this research is the development of a method that considers technical and safety information for resource allocation in solving operational risk problems. The main innovative factor is the improvement and reduction of the subjectivity of the traditional risk matrix models that allows obtaining risk estimates to the preparation of information for the allocation of resource. The application of methodological foundations for the construction and analysis of ⟨X, F⟩ models (as multiobjective models) to rationally allocate available resources to reduce operational risks is another innovative factor of this work. This approach has already been widely used to resolve various power engineering problems, and is utilized in this research, for the first time, for resource allocation in solving operational risk problems. The case study, related to a group of substations, conventionally demonstrates the possibility of reducing the subjectivity of the risk evaluation and the improvement of the quality of decisions made in resource allocation.