Comércio exterior e crescimento econômico: uma análise da economia brasileira

Abstract

In the economic literature, there is a consensus among the various theories that the participation of categories of products in international trade is a reflection of the productive structure of a given economy. However, empirical observations have demonstrated the lack of conclusive results on this relationship between productive structure and international trade. In this sense, the objective of this article is to empirically analyze the relationship between foreign trade and the growth of the Brazilian economy in the period from 2000 to 2017. The methodology consists of time series models - Autoregressive Vector (VAR) and Error Correction (VECM) - to check the balance of trade balance and gross domestic product (GDP) response to shocks on these same variables. The result indicates that GDP responds more than proportionately to the shocks of semi-manufactured goods than other products in the short term, and in the long term, the impacts of capital goods become significant.