Crescimento econômico e distribuição de renda: uma análise a partir das matrizes de contabilidade social e financeira para a economia brasileira

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the relationship between the income distribution and growth, in order to understand the extent to which changes in income distribution are capable of altering or even sustaining an economic growth´s trajectory. In other words, the objective of this work is to understand why the improvement in the distribution structure, verified in this period, was insufficient to stimulate or sustain economic growth. Thereby, this thesis turns to aspects related to the productive structure and the financial system. With respect to the productive structure, the purpose of the research is to understand the impact of changes in the distribution of income on the productive structure, in order to map the sectors of economic activity most fostered by this stimulus, as well as its role on economic growth and income distribution. With regard to the financial system, the research aims to explore the relationship between improved income distribution and access to the financial system, in order to capture the influence of this sector on the performance of the economy. Thus, in order to answer the questions mentioned above, the thesis is based on the idea that the distribution of income not only stems from the growth trajectory of the economy, but also interferes with it and, in this sense, it consists of a limiter or enhancer of growth, being able, therefore, to change its trajectory – from the productive structure and financial system. The conduct of this study is based on the Social Accounting Multipliers. The results suggest that the Brazilian´s production structure has weaknesses that acted to dissipate, or even eliminate, the gains from an improvement in income distribution and, consequently, limit economic growth. This configuration materializes from ever smaller increments in GDP, resulting from exogenous shocks in demand from the sectors, over the period analyzed - a result that triggers the existence of a feedback mechanism, which limits economic growth. The results also show that the exogenous improvements in income distribution, in the period analyzed, were insufficient to break with this dynamic. The analysis of the financial multipliers, in turn, showed that the financial sector, in this period, contributed to stimulate the economic growth and income of the agents. However, this sector also contributed to stimulated income inequality. In this sense, these analyzes demonstrate that the improvement in the income distribution presented positive effects to the economic growth in the analyzed period. However, despite its importance, the results suggest that this improvement was still insufficient to break with the limitations present in the productive structure, which have made it difficult to achieve a sustainable growth rate over time.