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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/52116
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dc.creatorBruno L. de Fariapt_BR
dc.creatorPaulo M. Brandopt_BR
dc.creatorMarcia N. Macedopt_BR
dc.creatorPrajjwal K. Pandaypt_BR
dc.creatorBritaldo Silveira Soares Filhopt_BR
dc.creatorMichael T. Coept_BR
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-17T22:32:12Z-
dc.date.available2023-04-17T22:32:12Z-
dc.date.issued2017-
dc.citation.volume12pt_BR
dc.citation.issue9pt_BR
dc.citation.spage0pt_BR
dc.citation.epage12pt_BR
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa69cept_BR
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326pt_BR
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1843/52116-
dc.description.resumoAmazon droughts directly increase forest flammability by reducing forest understory air and fuel moisture. Droughts also increase forest flammability indirectly by decreasing soil moisture, triggering leaf shedding, branch loss, and tree mortality—all of which contribute to increased fuel loads. These direct and indirect effects can cause widespread forest fires that reduce forest carbon stocks in the Amazon, with potentially important consequences for the global carbon cycle. These processes are expected to become more widespread, common, and intense as global climate changes, yet the mechanisms linking droughts, wildfires, and associated changes in carbon stocks remain poorly understood. Here, we expanded the capabilities of a dynamic forest carbon model to better represent (1) drought effects on carbon and fuel dynamics and (2) understory fire behavior and severity. We used the refined model to quantify changes in PanAmazon live carbon stocks as a function of the maximum climatological water deficit (MCWD) and fire intensity, under both historical and future climate conditions. We found that the 2005 and 2010 droughts increased potential fire intensity by 226 kW m1 and 494 kW m1 , respectively. These increases were due primarily to increased understory dryness (109 kW m1 in 2005; 124 kW m1 in 2010) and altered forest structure (117 kW m1 in 2005; 370 kW m1 in 2010) effects. Combined, these historic droughts drove total simulated reductions in live carbon stocks of 0.016 (2005) and 0.027 (2010) PgC across the Amazon Basin. Projected increases in future fire intensity increased simulated carbon losses by up to 90% per unit area burned, compared with modern climate. Increased air temperature was the primary driver of changes in simulated future fire intensity, while reduced precipitation was secondary, particularly in the eastern portion of the Basin. Our results show that fire-drought interactions strongly affect live carbon stocks and that future climate change, combined with the synergistic effects of drought on forest flammability, may strongly influence the stability of tropical forests in the future.pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológicopt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Geraispt_BR
dc.format.mimetypepdfpt_BR
dc.languageengpt_BR
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Geraispt_BR
dc.publisher.countryBrasilpt_BR
dc.publisher.departmentIGC - DEPARTAMENTO DE CARTOGRAFIApt_BR
dc.publisher.initialsUFMGpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofEnviromental Research Letterspt_BR
dc.rightsAcesso Abertopt_BR
dc.subjectAmazonpt_BR
dc.subjectClimate changept_BR
dc.subjectDroughtpt_BR
dc.subjectFire intensitypt_BR
dc.subjectFire severitypt_BR
dc.subjectCMIP5pt_BR
dc.subjectFire modelingpt_BR
dc.subject.otherAmazôniapt_BR
dc.subject.otherMudanças climáticaspt_BR
dc.subject.otherMudanças climáticas - Amazôniapt_BR
dc.subject.otherSecaspt_BR
dc.subject.otherQueimadapt_BR
dc.titleCurrent and future patterns of fire-induced forest degradation in Amazoniapt_BR
dc.typeArtigo de Periódicopt_BR
dc.url.externahttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa69cept_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8560-0034pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8952-7025pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1287-2004pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7703-946Xpt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7470-0697pt_BR
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