Análise da taxa de abandono escolar e fatores associados na Rede Estadual de Ensino Médio de Minas Gerais: avaliação pré e pós-pandemia de COVID-19

Abstract

This study's central objective is to verify the influence of school characteristics on the occurrence of school dropout in high school in the state network of Minas Gerais in the scenario before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, that is, in 2019 and 2022. To this end, , the data collected comes from the School Census provided by the National Institute of Educational Studies and Research Anísio Teixeira of the Ministry of Education (INEP/MEC). The prediction of the school dropout rate was carried out using the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) class of models, considering a cross-validation study with 70% data for training and 30% for validation/testing. After residual analysis, cross-validation and calculation of estimation capacity verification measures, the final model selected was the one with Beta probability distribution. The results showed that in 2022, greater academic delay and a higher average number of students per class contribute to an increase in the odds ratio of dropping out compared to the situation of retention among high school students in the state network of Minas Gerais. Understanding such school factors that influence the problem in question is fundamental so that government action can be directed to these spaces, in order to guarantee the student's permanence at school and, in fact, the realization of the right to education, especially after the pandemic period, in which regional, social, structural and access inequalities were reinforced, between others.