Modelagem de uso da terra e cenários de restauração de Mata Atlântica: o entorno do Parque Estadual Serra do Brigadeiro/MG

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamics of land use and proposes forest restoration scenarios in the surroundings of the Serra do Brigadeiro State Park (PESB), in the Zona da Mata region of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The research used a three-stage methodological approach: landscape diagnosis, deterministic modeling and probabilistic modeling. The first stage covered the years 1985, 2005 and 2022, using data from the MapBiomas project to evaluate metrics of area, shape, connection and diversity of forest patches. The second stage, deterministic modeling, was carried out using Hierarchical Process Analysis - Weighted Linear Combination (AHP-CLP), identifying priority areas for active restoration. The third stage applied probabilistic dynamic modeling to project land use scenarios until 2050, considering the passive restoration of forest patches. The results of the diagnosis showed high fragmentation of the Atlantic Forest on the rural properties around the PESB. Deterministic modeling identified 5,801 hectares (3.6% of the study area) as priorities for active restoration, exceeding the deficit of 2,273 hectares (1.4% of the study area) established by the Forest Code. In probabilistic modeling, the predictive scenario, projected under current land use conditions, indicated a greater presence of the biome in 2050, with 3,851 hectares restored. The exploratory scenario, which considered the priority areas from the deterministic modeling as an input, projected 12,815 hectares restored by 2050. The opportunity cost analysis revealed that forest restoration is more economically advantageous than maintaining pastures in both scenarios. In the predictive model, pasture could generate U$ 280.072,00 per year, while restoration and the sale of carbon credits could yield U$ 1.134.294,00 per year. In the exploratory scenario, renting out the pasture would yield U$ 932.000,00 per year. Converting it into forest, on the other hand, would bring in an annual income of U$ 3.774.600,00, four times higher than pasture rental. The conclusion is that forest restoration around the PESB can promote environmental and socio-economic sustainability in the region, in line with the global goals of restoring 12 million hectares of forest by 2030, in accordance with the Paris Agreement and the UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration.