Câmbio e crescimento na abordagem Keynesiana - Estruturalista

Abstract

The aim of this dissertation is to analyse, theoretically and empirically, from a Keynesian-Structuralist viewpoint, the relationship of the level of the real exchange rate and growth in developing countries. Firstly is analysed the traditional Structuralist approach following the contribution of the ECLAC in 1950s. Secondly, the Keynesian-Structuralist approach is compared to other contributions. Following such analytical reviews, model is built to relates growth, real exchange rate and sectoral heterogeneity. The model comes from Bhaduri e Marglin (1990), which have suggested a connection between accumulation regimes and growth. The innovation in our model is the inclusion of a new accumulation function that takes the level of the real exchange rate into consideration. The main idea is that changes in the accumulation regime provoked by real exchange rate variations can affect the firms expenditures plans on innovation, thereby affecting investment and technological progress. The dissertation progresses by demonstrating how a devaluation of the real exchange rate alter the sectoral heterogeneity of the economy by reducing real wages and establishing incentives to research and innovation. Such hypothesis closely follows the work of Dosi, Pavitt e Soete (1990). In this dissertation, the capacity utilization allows greater diversification, which in turn implies a higher (lower) capacity to export (import). Therefore, this rationale implies that trade income elasticities in balance of payments constrained growth models are endogenous to the levels of real exchange rates. The long-run solutions in these models have multiple equilibria: one equilibrium solution in which an appreciated real exchange rate is accompanied by a low rate of growth (low equilibrium); and another equilibrium solution featuring a depreciated real exchange rate associated with a higher rate of growth (high equilibrium). The stability analysis shows that the former equilibrium is unstable (a saddle point) while the latter is stable. Therefore, given that all parameters in the economy do not change, we can theoretically conclude that a higher growth rate for the levels of income can only be obtained at the expense of an increased level of the real exchange rate (a depreciated exchange rate). Lastly, empirical tests corroborate the main hypotheses, especially the one concerning the endogeneity of the elasticities in respect to the level of the real exchange rate.