A importância dos mercados interno e externo para a mudança estrutural

Abstract

The present work assesses the extent to which the domestic market and foreign market affect the process of structural change in Brazil, over the period 2000-2009, and in a set of 40 countries, in the period 1995-2007. For this purpose, a shift-share identity was developed to discriminate productivity growth in terms of sources of domestic and foreign demand. This exercise is superior to the traditional methodology in that it takes into account different sources of demand. For Brazil, the decomposition analysis is based on a database of 56 sectors from Brazilian Supply and Use Table released by IBGE. The analysis showed that the structural change effect (between effect) was bigger than the within effect, and both of them contributed to increase overall labor productivity in the economy. Regarding structural change the domestic market effect was more important to boost the movement of labor from less productive to more productive activities. For the sample of countries, the decomposition analysis is based on a database of 35 sectors from World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The results showed that the domestic market strongly influenced the structural change in Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America, while for the higher development level regions the foreign market was more relevant to structural change. Finally, the domestic and foreign markets seem to affect structural change through different channels.