Popularidade presidencial: análise dos microfundamentos do suporte público da presidente Dilma Rousseff

Abstract

This thesis investigates the micro presidential evaluation, as it is structured and changes over time. In this sense, this work moves away from the idea that voters are subjects whose choices are governed by fixed and well established criteria to defend that citizens evaluate the president from being limited in their judgments, moved by subjective aspects targeted by cognition. In short, the thesis centers on the relationship between the perception and the electorate's predisposition with the president's popularity. The central hypothesis is that voters judge presidents from their perception on government measures. Individuals have preferences and predispositions that direct understanding of how the government is acting. The research aimed to investigate the dynamics of public support, and especially its connection with factors such as expectations about the governor, party identification, age, education, confidence in the president and ideology. Among the investigated issues is the divergence among voters about the focus and the evaluation time. The focus relates to how the governors measures will be considered. They can be judged from the impact on individual well-being or how to affect the daily lives of the entire population. Also, another issue to be discussed is whether the analysis of the agent is directed by past events or just for prognosis. As evaluation is the answer to the perception of the subjects on the government's actions, the incumbent creates strategies to strengthen public support. To do so, the media is a worthwhile means to broadcast the permanent campaign of the government and the opposition. Thus, this research investigated what is the impact of media in defining what issues are relevant and in redefining the criteria used by citizens in their judgment of the president's performance. The questions were answered from data taken from national surveys, as President Dilma Rousseffs evaluation after two years of government - Datafolha 2012; Analysis from IBOPE of protests occurred on June 2013 and Brazilian media research institutes - Secom / IBOPE 2013.