Estudo de planejamento energético para o setor de mineração de minério de ferro no estado de Minas Gerais no horizonte 2014/2035, utilizando o modelo ENPEP

Abstract

This work aimed to predict the behavior of the energy demand for the Iron Ore Mining Sector in the State of Minas Gerais, in the period from 2014 to 2035. Two scenarios have been established for the production of iron ore by applying the methodology of Hubert curves assuming varying degrees of final exploration of the remaining ore reserves in the State: 2023 Peak Scenario, in which only the current Measured Reserves will be explored, with peak production in 2023, and Peak 2030 Scenario that will be explored the current measured and indicated reserves, with peak production in 2030. For the calculation of future demand of the energy the BALANCE module of the "Energy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP) model was used. In implementing the model, it was considered that the energy efficiency of the equipment evolution will reach the current level of best practices in 2035. To account for the variation in the prices of diesel oil was used the international prices growth projection provided by EIA. The evolution of the price of electricity in Brazil, is very dependent on policies and regulations and economic conditions, being extremely unpredictable. For the analysis were adopted three levels of variation: -10% aa, 0% aa and 10% aa. The results indicate that the breakdown of final consumption energy has great sensitivity between the price of electrical energy. Between 2014 and 2035, the final energy consumption varies between -3% and +1% for both scenarios. The final electricity consumption varies between -1% and +8%, while final consumption of diesel fuel varies between48% and +9%. The BALANCE module also allows the evaluation of environmental impacts. In this study were calculated the total emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases from the burning of diesel fuel; CO2; CH4; and N2O. Gas emissions vary following the diesel oil consumption of between -48% and +9%