Desenvolvimento urbano, infraestrutura e dinâmica imobiliária

Abstract

One of the pressing debates in contemporary urban policy is how to implement land value capture, when infrastructure investments financed by the collectivity generated land value but landowners capture it, and how to finance the infrastructure supply from these recovery instruments. In this debate, one of the challenges is to measure the effects of certain urban investments on real estate prices. Facing these questions, the aim of this thesis is to investigate the relationship between urban development, infrastructure supply, and its impacts on real estate dynamics. This objective unfolds in (i) reflecting on forms of economic and urban-regional development, critically describing and appreciating policies adopted between 1930-1980, and contemporary policies such as Smart Cities and Aerotropolis; ii) to investigate the reasons why this development strategy (Aerotropolis) was the option that motivated efforts of Minas Gerais' state government for about a decade (2003-2014) and to present some spatial implications of this option; and iii) measure and describe the impact of selected infrastructure investments related with this strategy on real estate dynamics, taking as a case study the Vector Norte (VN) of the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (RMBH). This area was subject to a set of infrastructure investments (roads, transportation, and architecture) guided by a policy that sought to establish a logistics hub at the Tancredo Neves International Airport (located in the municipality of Confins). In order to meet objective ii), databases and documents were explored, as well as semi-structured interviews with public managers who led the projects and with businesspersons and executives from the civil construction sector. In spite of new forms, the conditions, objectives, means, characteristics and potential outcomes seem to be perpetuated in certain key aspects of this "variety of capitalism." For objective (iii), two databases were used: tax data of properties transactions (ITBI) provided by the City Hall of Belo Horizonte; and data of land parceling ("Anuência Prévia") of the Metropolitan Development Agency of Belo Horizonte. From the ITBI data, it was possible to estimate a difference-indifferences model in a counterfactual exercise. The results of this estimation indicate statistically significant positive correlations between the infrastructure investments and real estate prices in the study area, particularly in the apartment and vacant land markets. These potential impacts vary according to the sort of investment considered (for example, the Administrative City had a positive correlation, whereas the BRT system had a negative correlation). In addition, the roles of the macroeconomic cycle, urban regulation, and urban conventions are highlighted in the analysis of results. The descriptive analysis of Anuência Prévia data illustrates how a large part of the RMBH's land parceling processes in the recent period occurred in the VN - about 50% between 2012 and 2016. This may suggest that a significant part of the land value generated by the investment occurred beyond BH, leading to urbanization processes such as "leapfrog" and inclusion, where new urban areas emerge noncontiguous to the main urban built area of the RMBH.