Entradas e saídas no sistema previdenciário brasileiro: uma aplicação de tábuas de mortalidade

Abstract

This dissertation has as its main objective the calculation of the transition probabilities for the Brazilian Social Security System. The new data will help to fill a void of information that is vital for scenario building, an important tool in the analysis of proposals for the highly controversial Social Insurance reform currently under consideration. This is achieved through an application of simple and multiple-decrement mortality tables, where each of the table functions yields interesting insights into the behavior of the system. The probabilities are compared across the distinct types of pensions, the two genders and the two types of pensioner (urban versus rural). Further comparisons with other related studies are also carried out; in particular, the exit probability profile is confronted with that of the whole population. The results stress the consequences of the new Pension Plan, implemented in 1991, and evaluate the impact of a future elimination of length-of-service retirement. In addition, they characterize handicapped pensioners as subject to higher mortality rates than the general population, as expected, and identify a problem of subenumeration in the annual outward flow of pensions.