Política monetária brasileira: o crédito, modelos de previsão e a taxa selic

Abstract

This work aims to forecast the Credit Balance, released by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB), and verify the relationship between credit and the basic interest rate. For forecasting, univariate models were estimated using the Box-Jenkins methodology. The credit/interest rate relationship was estimated by dynamic regression, also considering the dependent variable as a regressor. The forecast of the credit balance is important to understand the impacts of Monetary Policy on the economy. Additionally, these forecasts can be incorporated into other predictive models, such as GDP.