Crescimento econômico da China: três ensaios sobre os impactos no mundo, na América Latina e no Brasil

Abstract

In recent years, several studies in economics have sought to better understand the impacts of China's remarkable economic and commercial growth. Despite numerous findings, the literature has not yet reached a clear consensus. The central objective of this dissertation is to investigate the different impacts of this process by estimating dynamic panel data models from multiple perspectives. In the first essay, the relationship between China and the rest of the world is analyzed, based on China’s imports from other countries and under the hypothesis that Chinese demand generates impacts that vary according to the domestic characteristics of each country, such as average income. Considering different model specifications, the analysis suggests that countries whose export basket to China is more technology-intensive tend to experience higher economic growth rates. When controlling for countries' income levels, the results indicate that the positive impact is greater among low-income countries than among middle-income countries. These findings align with much of the existing literature, which argues that China’s economic and commercial rise has had broad effects on global supply and demand, particularly benefiting low-income economies. The second essay focuses on the relationship between China and Latin America, specifically examining trade competition. The hypothesis is that increased competition with China may have positive effects on Latin American countries' economic growth, as it implies greater similarity in export structures. Given China’s own trajectory of export specialization and diversification, the alignment of Latin America's export profile with China’s could benefit the region in terms of growth. Despite limitations such as the small size of the panel and data constraints for Latin American countries during the proposed period, a positive relationship was found between higher export similarity with China and the economic growth rates of these countries. This finding is also consistent with the literature, which points out that more diversified production structures and more sophisticated export activities tend to improve countries’ economic performance. The third essay examines the relationship between China and Brazil at the state level. Based on the volume of Brazilian states’ exports to China, the hypothesis is that the effects vary depending on the level of productive and commercial diversification across states. Given that both proxies used—economic complexity and sectoral concentration of exports—were statistically significant, the results suggest that the impact of state-level exports to China on GDP growth varies with each state’s degree of productive specialization and sectoral concentration. More specifically, the estimations suggest that as economic complexity increases, the positive effect of exports to China on state GDP diminishes. In contrast, in states with medium or high sectoral concentration, the impact of exports to China on GDP tends to be less negative—or even positive—depending on the combined magnitude of the estimated coefficients. These results reinforce the hypothesis that states with higher economic complexity and greater export diversification already exhibit higher levels of GDP, regardless of exports to China. Although the three essays examine different variables and contexts, they are complementary in offering a broader understanding of the impacts of China’s recent economic and commercial expansion. Overall, the findings from this dissertation highlight the importance of productive structure in determining the effects of China's growth. Economies that are less technologically sophisticated and more dependent on specific sectors tend to be more directly affected, whereas more complex and diversified economies exhibit greater autonomy with respect to economic growth.