Desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro e pobreza no Brasil (1995-2008)

Abstract

In the last decades, several studies have emphasized the interrelationship between the development of the financial system and economic growth. Theoretical and empirical analysis suggest that the development of the financial system has a positive effect on the rate of economic growth, generating impact on income growth and reducing poverty rates. Following this logic, this thesis sought to investigate the effectiveness of the development of the financial system as a tool for promoting economic growth, increase income and reduce poverty, using data from the Brazilian federation units in the period 1995-2008. For both techniques were used econometric methods based on canonical correlation and panel data, in order to confront theoretical predictions with the empirical behavior of the variables of interest over time. The main results inferred from the empirical canonical correlation analysis confirm the hypothesis of the existence of correlation between the sets of variables related to the development of the financial system, income and poverty. Therefore, the development of the financial system has demonstrated a good predictive power of the variance of the composite of variables correlated with income and poverty. Empirical evidence for panel data was, in part, consistent with the theoretical prediction, in that it demonstrated that some financial variables affect both the rate of poverty, as the average household income per capita.