Queda na taxa SELIC e o seu impacto na estrutura de capital das empresas não financeiras listadas na B3

Abstract

The objective of this work is to analyze the influence of the recent drop in the interest rate (Selic) on the capital structure of publicly traded companies in the Brazilian stock market. The gap is configured by the preference to investigate the reaction of the capital structure on the aforementioned macroeconomic variable as a function of the economic subsectors. The relevance of the chosen theme is to carry out a sectorial analysis of the effect of the decreasing variation of the Selic rate on the composition of the capital structure, identifying the most sensitive sectors. It is also relevant in terms of relying on classical financial theories applied to the current context, in order to help predict the proportion of indebtedness in the face of fluctuations in the Selic rate. As a method, we used the Multiple Linear Regression with panel data with the method of Apparently Uncorrelated Regressions (SUR). The sample consisted of 78 companies divided into eight subsectors, adopting the B3 classification, with data referring to the period from the first quarter of 2014 to the second of 2021. The companies' accounting debt level was used as a proxy for capital structure. Corroborating with previous studies, it was found that intrinsic factors of companies have greater explanatory power in the composition of the capital structure when compared to the macroeconomic variable, the Selic rate. Among the specific variables, profitability (ROA) was the one that showed the greatest influence on the capital structure of companies, being significant for seven of the eight subsectors analyzed. Regarding the SELIC rate, considering the significant coefficients, the sign of the parameters converged as predicted by the pecking order theory. The economic subsectors of health, industrial goods and cyclical consumption were those with the highest number of significant variables, while Oil and gas was less dependent.