Inclusão financeira, efeito crownding-out e inadimplência bancária entre 2008 e 2019

Abstract

This article aims to analyze whether financial institutions with the ability to promote financial inclusion do so even in adverse moments. Four types of financial institutions were analyzed: public banks, private banks, credit unions, and in a complementary way to fintech. It is understood that in adverse moments public banks can act in a way to soften the credit restriction generated by private banks, promoting increased government indebtedness and upward pressure on interest rates (known as crowding-out effect). In this sense, two hypotheses were assumed: [i] the existence of the crowding-out effect in the national retail lending system; and [ii] that consumer delinquency is one of the main factors that promote the reduction of the supply of loans by all financial institutions. To evaluate this hypothesis, market demand was estimated by adapting the Berry procedure (1994) to assess the price-elasticity of demand in addition diversion rations (according to Farrell and Shapiro, 2010) Upward Price Pressure Theory. From the results, it was possible to verify that the existence of the crowding-out effect is partially present between public banks and private banks because credit unions, such as public banks, expand bank loans in adverse moments. As far as fintech companies are concerned, the participation of these firms in the national market is still incipient, so that policies of social inclusion to new technologies are more necessary than public policies aimed at the financial system