Efeitos da incerteza da política econômica no caixa das empresas brasileiras

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty on the cash and financial slack of publicly traded companies listed in the Brazilian stock market. Method: The uncertainty measures Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) and the Brazilian Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIEBr) were adopted in addition to cash holdings and cash equivalents and financial slack to make estimations using the quarterly data (from 2010 to 2020) of 152 companies listed on B3 using the GMM-System, the application of which can mitigate endogeneity problems.Results: In general, evidence was found that economic policy uncertainty is positively related to the companies’ cash level, suggesting that companies withhold more cash when uncertainty increases. Additional analyses suggest that economic policy uncertainty also influences future cash levels. The results also indicate that, compared to the EPU, more pronounced and consistent results were obtained when the IIEBr was used, regardless of the different calculation methods. Contributions: This study’s results have implications for the literature and companies as it presents the role of cash reserves among Brazilian companies in mitigating the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty.