Análise do desempenho econômico-financeiro de empresas armamentistas

Abstract

The research presented in this dissertation aimed to analyze the economic-financial performance and stock market behavior of the leading companies in the armaments industry, considering the different geopolitical contexts experienced between 2015 and 2024. The study is classified as descriptive, quantitative, and documentary, and was conducted in two stages: (1) an event study and (2) a financial analysis. The sample consisted of companies in the armaments industry and their respective national peers from other sectors. Data were obtained from the SIPRI Top 100 report, the Refinitiv Eikon platform, and Yahoo! Finance. The selected conflicts and wars analyzed were: the Russia–Ukraine War, the Israel–Hamas War, and the Israeli strike on Iran. The hypotheses developed were tested using different data analysis techniques, including correlation analysis, the Mann–Whitney test, multiple regression analysis, and panel data regression. The findings indicate that, in the very short term, the proportion of firms’ operations in the military sector emerged as the main driver of abnormal returns, suggesting that companies more exposed to defense revenues exhibit higher abnormal returns. In contrast, the indicators of armaments companies generally remained within stable ranges, showing variations across periods but often without statistically significant differences compared with their peers. The panel data models revealed that market valuation is influenced primarily by traditional performance variables (such as profitability and leverage) as well as by the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. From an academic perspective, the research provides novel empirical evidence on the performance of armaments companies under different geopolitical contexts, reinforcing theories on the sector’s resilience during periods of instability. From a practical standpoint, the results highlight the relevance of exposure to defense revenues as a value-enhancing factor in conflict scenarios, offering insights for investors and managers. For policymakers, the findings underscore the importance of understanding the role of the armaments industry not only from a military standpoint but also as an economic actor with countercyclical capacity.