Análises e projeções da dinâmica de cobertura vegetal, uso da terra e águas superficiais na Bacia do Alto Paraguai-MT, Brasil : subsídios para o planejamento ambiental e territorial

Abstract

Over the past few decades, the intensification of agriculture in Brazil, driven by global demand for commodities, has caused significant changes in the landscapes of the Upper Paraguay River Basin in Mato Grosso. This region, crucial for Brazil's water resource management, is home to the Pantanal, a biome of international ecological importance, as well as areas of the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Against this backdrop, this thesis aims to analyze, through geotechnological tools, the dynamics of land cover and land use changes in the basin, identifying the driving factors and projecting future environmental scenarios. Thus, it seeks to provide data and information to support environmental and territorial planning in the region, contributing to sustainable natural resource management. The thesis is structured into three chapters, each addressing different aspects of environmental changes in the Upper Paraguay River Basin. The first chapter analyzes deforestation dynamics, highlighting patterns and trends in the landscape over time. The second chapter focuses on historical deforestation agents and projects future scenarios through predictive modeling, supporting conservation policies. The third chapter investigates surface water dynamics, observing how changes in land cover and land use affect local hydrology. For the analyses, data from the MapBiomas project (1985-2020) were used, processed with geoprocessing techniques. Temporal variation in land cover, land use, and surface water was analyzed through transition diagrams, while deforestation projections were made using spatial modeling. For surface water cover, a time-series approach was employed. Between 1985 and 2020, natural vegetation areas in the basin decreased by 19.82%, while agricultural areas increased by 76.74%. Deforestation was more intense in plateau areas, where anthropic areas have surpassed natural areas. Projections for 2050 indicate an additional loss of 21.20% of natural vegetation areas and a 29.81% increase in agricultural areas, with the latter dominating from 2040 onwards. Three variables stood out as drivers of deforestation: proximity to already deforested areas, roads, and cities, while proximity to protected areas proved to be a protective factor. During the same period, surface waters in the basin decreased by 68.61%, with a 19.37% reduction in the Amazon biome, a 134.28% increase in the Cerrado, and a 74.27% reduction in the Pantanal. Projections for 2050 suggest stabilization of surface water cover, with a possible 8.9% increase. The results of this thesis provide valuable information for policy-making, highlighting the importance of protected areas, sustainable agricultural practices, and adaptive management strategies. The research reinforces the need for an integrated and multidisciplinary approach to address environmental challenges, contributing to sustainable development in the region.