Modelagem dinâmica de distribuição de metas de redução de desmatamento, estimativas de potencial de emissão de gases de efeito estufa e de receitas financeiras via Redd+ em níveis sub-nacionais: um estudo de caso para a Amazônia Brasileira

Abstract

This research presents a dynamic model aiming the distribution of deforestation reductions targets in sub-national levels. Potential greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions and financial resources from a future REDD+ mechanism in six different scenarios are also estimated. The model uses georeferenced maps as deforestation explicative variables and was developed using Dinamica Ego software. The model was applied to the Amazon biome in the Brazilian Legal Amazon region and it took into account the Climate Change National Policy and the deforestation combat plans of the states of Acre, Amazonas, Mato Grosso and Pará. Therefore, emission reduction targets were defined for each municipality in Amazonia. The spatial resolution was 2 km2 and the validation process indicated a Fuzzy Similarity Index (FSI) of 0,71. The results are presented by municipalities . 35 municipalities are considered critical and together correspond to 46.2% of the deforestation reduction national target. Considering the entire Amazon, the GHG emissions result in the reference scenario is 4.23 PgC and in the target scenario is 1.83 PgC, both between the years of 2006 and 2020. The potential financial resource generation by the carbon market is between U$ 0.7 and U$ 11.0 billion per year, considering different prices of REDD+ credits.