Previsão hierárquica aplicada às políticas públicas de transporte rodoviário

Abstract

In the administration of highway concessions is of fundamental importance to monitor the tra c volume for the management of the concession as a whole and especially for planning expansion works . This work addresses the practical PPP case of MG-050 , the first road PPP in the country. The data extracted from this concession subisidisedthe analysis of application of hierarchical forecasting methods, since as important as the overall highway tra c forecasts are desagregated forecasts of such flows. in this work, 4 methods of hierarchical forecast are compared, wich are bottom-up and three variations of the top-down method, one of them recently proposed in the literature by Hyndman et al(2009).