Mudança de política externa em democracias periféricas : uma análise qualitativa comparada do Cone Sul sob o novo liberalismo (2003-2022).

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the domestic determinants of foreign policy in consolidated Southern Cone democracies between 2003 and 2022, drawing on the premises of New Liberalism. It assumes that social preferences, once institutionalized and transmitted to the international arena, shape state foreign policy behavior. The aim is to assess to what extent three domestic conditions — Ideological Change (MdI), High Societal Divergence (ADS), and Unconstrained Executive Power (PED) — contribute to the occurrence of the phenomenon of interest: Foreign Policy Preference Change (MPPE), understood as the substantive and sustained reorientation of foreign policy in response to internal demands. Adopting a case-specific and outcome-centered approach, the methodology used is Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), applied to 18 governments in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The conditions were operationalized based on specialized literature and empirical evidence, allowing for the identification of causal combinations associated with the outcome. The main finding is the sufficiency of the combination PED*ADS for the occurrence of MPPE, indicating that the simultaneous presence of an executive branch with low institutional constraints and a society marked by significant dissent is decisive for foreign policy reorientation. None of the three conditions proved necessary in isolation. The conclusion reinforces that New Liberalism, by articulating social preferences, representative institutions, and state action, offers a productive framework to understand the distinct foreign policy trajectories of Southern Cone democracies. By employing the configurational logic of QCA, the study highlights the importance of analyzing institutional arrangements, political coalitions, and state capacities to explain foreign policy preference change in democratic contexts.