Efetividade econômica, social e ambiental da precificação de carbono na economia brasileira para o alcance de metas de redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa

Abstract

Brazil is one of the world's largest greenhouse gases (GHG) emitters, and as such, national emission mitigation policies are highly relevant to combat Global Warming. Reducing deforestation has been the main proposal as a national mitigation strategy. However, current Brazilian climate policies are to fall short of what is needed to reach the goals agreed in Paris. Therefore, additional measures can be necessary to achieve the targets at Nationally determined contribution (NDC), which includes to cut its greenhouse gases emissions by 43% until 2030, compared to 2005 levels. This thesis evaluated the potential for GHG emissions abatement on productive Brazilian sectors through Marginal Abatement Cost curves (MAC) to identify strategic sectors for sectoral mitigation policies. Moreover, the main goal of this thesis was to analyze the economic impacts of the implementation of carbon emission trading, through the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with a recursive-dynamic structure named BEETS (Brazilian Energy Emissions Trading Schemes model). The model developed includes energetic and environmental specification modules that allow for emissions grouping by emitting agent (fuel, industries and households), emitting activity and land use change. A set of 11 representative families were specified, divided by yield classes, which made it possible to compare the consumption pattern changes between different classes due to implementation of carbon emission trading. Furthermore, the electricity generation sectors were disaggregated to incorporate changes in the electrical matrix, which is increasingly relevant as an emission source. Therefore, three different emission control scenarios were analyzed: Reference Scenario (command and control without negotiation); Expanded Trade (carbon emission trading with all productive sectors); Restricted Trade (carbon emission trading with selected sectors). The results showed that carbon emissions trading systems are efficient to achieve the NDC. On the one hand, Restricted Trade requires a higher carbon price and is associated with a higher level of emissions from land use change. On the other hand, Expanded Trade generates negative distributional effects compared to Restricted Trade.