Zoneamento das áreas com maior propensão para adoecimento pela dengue na região intra-urbana de Montes Claros (MG) a partir de variáveis sócioambientais e geoestatística

Abstract

The objective of this work was to delimitation the determinats areas with the most propention to occurrence of sick peoples by dengue in the Montes Claros city, Minas Gerais. The methodology was consists in the acquisition of databases relateded at infects numbers by dengue, by neighborhoods, betwen the years 2015, 2016 and 2017; obtaining of Breteau Index about larval infestation by Aedes aegyptiin the related years; use of satelities imagery to estimation of land surface temperature (LST); acquisition of databases about land elevation and familiar income. In the next time, was realize the organization of databases; employing the descriptive analysis; application of multiple linear regretion and interpolation of files. The use of regressive model, progressing StepWise, to selection of predictive variables, with more po explication power to disease outbreaks in the period, showed efficient, and this was permited the operationabilization of the co-kriging, which brought the regions with the more probability to dengue infectation. Overall, the larval infestation by the Aedes aegypti had happened on the west side, while the infectation by dengue have been more propention on the east side of the city, two portions in different economic situations, where the western part concentrates the population with the highest income. This factor denotes the fragility of the low-income population in terms of public health and their greater lack of strategic attention.