Utilização de simulação e análise de superficie de resposta fuzzy no minimização de recursos em projetos não repetitivos

Abstract

One of the main decisions that the manager should take at the beginning of a project is to define the amount of resources it Will need to conduct the endeavor under its responsibility. The pressure for cost/time reduction and the uncertainty inherent to initial works are components of a complex decision problem. Therefore, due to the lack of activities duration historical data, this problem becomes harder when several parallel activities are considered at the project network. The methodology proposed in this paper, based on fuzzy response surface analysis, proved to be suitable to solve this kind of problem, even with smaller computational effort than Monte Carlo simulation.