Materialismo, simbolismo e sucesso eleitoral na América Latina : ofertas e demandas em eleições presidenciais

Abstract

This research aims to investigate the relationship between the type of campaign mobilization and its electoral results, with a focus on presidential elections in Latin America. A dataset was built, LADaPrEC (Latin American Dataset of Presidential Elections and Campaigns), which contains information on electoral supply and demand for 155 presidential campaigns, 40 elections in 14 countries. To identify the type of campaign mobilization, the Predominant Mobilization Index (IMP) was created through an original classification using the methods of categorical content analysis and expert classification. To estimate the relationship between the variables, a logit model was built using the Maximum Likelihood estimator, corrected by the Firth bias correction method. The results indicate that investment in material appeals tends to favor campaigns, but this relationship does not apply to situations where the economic situation is poorly assessed. These contexts are associated with a drop in confidence in political elites, from which they tend to respond with more symbolic campaigns. Before being a problem per se, the investment in symbolism by campaigns is an attempt to regain legitimacy in a context of systemic economic dissatisfaction.