Convergência dos resultados escolares por estratos econômicos: uma análise a partir da esperança de anos de estudo

Abstract

Brazilian educational system went through a significant reform, starting in the 90’s, that resulted in an almost universal access to elementary and middle school level, and a great increase in enrolments of High School level. The improvements noticed during this time could be the result of an education system expansion, but could also be related to demographic process that made it easier to achieve. On this matter, this work proposes a discussion concerning the increase on enrolment rates and the simultaneous decrease of absolute numbers of enrolled children. It also debates the performance results related to the transition rates, such as promotion, school drop outs and academic failure. Using these rates, one indicator stands out: The Expected Years of Schooling, that refers to the number of years of schooling that a child is expected to achieve by the end of his/her school life cycle, if the transition rates observed at the start of his/her education remain constant. Through an analysis regarding synthetic cohorts, it was intended to verify the existence of regional convergence and economic convergence in the indicator’s evolution between 1991 and 2010, based on data from the Brazilian census. Confirming the initial hypotheses of existing convergence proposed here, this work demonstrated the evolution of general results, regional results and income quintile results, concluding that there is a convergence process that affects not only the geographic regions, but also the social economic structure existent in Brazil.