Challenges of the fourth energy transition in Brazil : the role of China

Abstract

This thesis explores the challenges Brazil faces in equitably sharing the benefits of the fourth energy transition with its society, particularly in light of its historical dependence on hydroelectricity and the influence of China as both a market and political actor. The research is guided by primary hypotheses that identify Brazil's reliance on traditional energy sectors and China's alignment with these established sectors as constraints to incorporating small-scale renewable energy grids necessary for a socially equitable transition. In its methodology, the thesis employs a single-unit case study approach, focusing on Brazil while utilizing China as a comparative framework to analyze broader state dynamics in energy policy. It engages with concepts and technical vocabulary related to energy, emphasizing the socio-technical standards established during previous energy transitions. The research highlights China's reorganization of its National Innovation System, which has fostered endogenous solutions to energy security, positioning China as a leader in the current energy transition. Subsequent chapters critically examine the role of international financial institutions and how the strategic partnership between China and Brazil navigates the system’s conditionalities from within, rather than allowing them to dictate Brazil's energy policy. Additionally, specialized energy agencies and organizations often present Brazil as a model for the fourth energy transition. However, this portrayal starkly contrasts with Brazilian domestic reality, where the socio-technical benefits of the transition are not fully realized by its citizens. The analytical chapter revisits theoretical frameworks and empirical data, reinforcing the conclusion that a robust energy capacity and sustainable matrix, as exemplified by China, are insufficient without reliable distribution networks. The complexity of Brazil's situation, characterized by structural dependencies and incumbent energy sectors, necessitates a multifaceted approach to understanding the fourth energy transition. The thesis concludes with recommendations aimed at transforming this transition into a sociotechnical reality for Brazilian citizens, challenging the prevailing mindset that national and international corporate interests lose profitability by addressing social objectives.